In June, immediately after the election, the Government laid down an aggressive plan to reduce the budget deficit.
The plan was based on the assumption would bounce back strong this year, 2.3% - the growth and inflation would be only through objective - to 2.4%.
Since then, the economic data has even worse: only 1.7% estimated growth and inflation is now expected to be over 4% for those which are most this year.
What makes this the reduction plan deficit?
The answer is – the Government meets the objective of the Elimination of Defizits-remains but for more higher debt.
It was at 70% of GDP in the year 2013 tip then back 70% lower than predicted in the year 2014, and again in the year 2015.
This is self-defined additional fiscal target the Government: "net public debt as a percentage of GDP at a fixed time fall 2015-16"
Now, it is then easy even peak at nearly 71% of GDP, over 70% in the year 2014 is allocated in the year to 69.1%. So, if debt falls, is until 2015, 38 billion higher than we thought it, it would be.
This means the Coalition just an own meet objectives and their margin of error on this is now less, says the OBR.
But some economists think, also, these projections are too optimistic. Doug McWilliams of the CEBR says:
"It is unlikely that consumer spending to rise this year is OBR forecasts the consumer spending deflator up to 4.6% this year and average earnings up 2.0 show %." The OBR expected consumer spending to rise 0.6% in 2011, but this may mean something other than a lot of pressure on the consumer.
"The OBR seems remarkably sanguine about the global economy." It is possible that the price of oil may edge down over the next 4 years; It is also possible that world GDP growth above 4% will be in these years. But it is highly unlikely that both at the same time takes place. "So the growth forecasts are subject to export."
There is a another pair provide: first, the impact of spending cuts on growth. This is the point in question between the Government and labour - and which is now of minus 0.7% in the forecast (June 2010) negative impact of the reductions of appropriations to minus 0.2% - OBR shrunk and although these tiny percentages of arcane sound, which minus 0.7% about a third of all projected growth.
The OBR explains that this say that the switch which Coalition cut editions of departments (ie public services) was AME (i.e. social assistance), that the impact of the cuts "" disappears from this line in the calculation, and will open in reduced consumption (this according to OBR spokesman).
Secondly, the trade is. The Government assumptions about a growth recovery rely on Britain's trade situation always positive - it's strongly negative for a decade and not very well in the last year, when during production boomed, was also booming imports. The OBR says a few large aircraft purchases this number - can have garbled, so that if we do not buy so many jumbo jets, United Kingdom his positive trade gets finally number.
But let us see. The UK is not currently as an export powerhouse for me.
A final observation from the document OBR. You are not very impressed with the plan for growth.
The growth-oriented measures are tangible and concentrated mainly on business - and on the type of business you create jobs and want to boost exports. The corporate tax cut is important, as the fuel duty escalator cut and the enterprise zones. But the OBR says:
"We believe it is strong enough evidence trend change our growth assumption in the light of the policy measures announced in the budget 2011 to justify" (OBR, 3.19)
Just to translate: This means that they are not factoring in George Osborne plan for growth at all in their forecasts for the medium-term outlook of the economy. For example, it means that the structural impact of income tax changes, is "minimal".
So the great food from the figures in today's budget really: there is no certainty that the growth in the way rebound is the Chancellor is claimed. The micro measures are widely welcomed is on the business and the markets, with the conservative right say that more and work rubbishing them. But the fact remains...
The growth figures were revised downwards twice; Inflation is much higher; Real incomes are squashed.
But is for now, the markets of the Government give the benefit of the doubt - and we see that in the lower-cost of Government-Mr Osborne in noted bond lower than any other country with government bonds provide.
And while I it to mention the debate has just begun in the Portuguese Parliament, fiasco could bring to the last phase of the euro sovereign debt.
沒有留言:
張貼留言